Episode 37: Master Your Estimates: Understanding and Overcoming the Planning Fallacy

Understanding and Overcoming the Planning Fallacy | Bryan Foltice Behavioral Finance Podcast

In this episode of the Bryan Foltice Behavioral Finance Podcast, host Bryan Foltice discusses the 'planning fallacy,' a common cognitive bias where individuals systematically underestimate the time, cost, and risks associated with tasks. Originating from the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, this fallacy affects everyone, including academics and professionals. 

Bryan shares his personal experiences and insights on avoiding the pitfalls of the planning fallacy, emphasizing the importance of realistic time estimations, proper budgeting, and anticipation of potential risks to improve productivity and financial planning. Tune in to learn practical strategies to combat this common bias and enhance your decision-making skills.

00:00 Introduction to the Planning Fallacy
00:49 Personal Experience with the Planning Fallacy
01:47 Origins and Explanation of the Planning Fallacy
02:33 Impact of the Planning Fallacy in Academia
04:14 Optimism and Miscalibration
05:09 Real-Life Example: Summer Project
07:55 Budgeting and Financial Implications
10:13 Evaluating Risk and Setting Expectations
11:43 Strategies to Overcome the Planning Fallacy
14:53 Conclusion and Offerings